Editors Note. The analysis was done with the Final Count from Election Day. As of this writing, the results are not official. Subsequent counts have not changed the results.
The 2025 municipal elections in Billings didn’t deliver a political earthquake—but they did reveal a city shifting focus from screens to daily life. Voters leaned toward pragmatic leadership, coalition-minded problem solvers, and candidates who emphasized local impact over ideological purity. The results show a nuanced shift toward the center, with key wins for moderates and progressives, with conservatives holding serve.
This is a shift in the attitudes of independents.
The article includes an analysis of the impact that Ranked Choice Voting would have had in two of these races.
Ranked Choice Voting or some variation of counting ballots that always results in at 50% plus 1 majority winner instead of plurality winners.
Two of the elections stand out in this regard. Ward 2 in the Heights, and the city-wide election for mayor.
🔍 Mayoral Race:
Mike Nelson’s narrow victory over Jennifer Owen—just 185 votes out of more than 29,000 cast—wasn’t just a statistical nail-biter. It was a referendum on tone, trust, and coalition-building. Nelson, a Democratic-leaning businessman, ran on inclusive governance and economic realism. Owen, a Republican-aligned council member, emphasized fiscal restraint and conservative values.
The result? What seems to be a near-even split, with Nelson edging ahead thanks to support from moderate voters, coalition organizers, and those seeking collaborative leadership.
When we analyze the vote from a RCV perspective, it reveals Owen as a narrow winner. So a close four-way election, remains close with ranked choice voting but the results flip.
In my mind, this reflects the tension within the GOP of the ideological conservatives who are for cutting taxed and regulations when they say they “support business”. The election of both Cole and Nelson shows a preference for mayors that look to the future and make decisions based on what works.
🏛️ Council Races: Center Holds, Progressives Break Through, Conservatives Consolidate
Across the five city council wards, voters favored candidates who emphasized housing, infrastructure, and public safety—issues that transcend party lines.
- Ward 1: Mark Nicholson won with 61.9% of the vote, defeating David Redmon. His platform emphasized pragmatic solutions and community engagement.
- Ward 2: Denis Pitman, returning to city council after serving on the Yellowstone County Commission, won with 43% of the vote. He defeated Kassi Strong and Earnest Hammer, reflecting continued conservative strength in the Heights in a three-way vote.
- Ward 3: Amy Aguirre, a progressive candidate and nonprofit director, won with 57.3% of the vote over incumbent TJ Rogers. Her victory shows that progressive values—when clearly communicated and locally grounded—can resonate.
- Ward 4: Andrew Lindley, a centrist a
- nd tech executive, won with 54.3% of the vote over incumbent Daniel Tidswell. His win reflects a growing appetite for pragmatic leadership.
- Ward 5: Tony O’Donnell, a former state utility commissioner, won with 59.6% of the vote over business owner Patrick Olp. His victory continues a conservative trend in the far West End.
The Shift in the Heights
The biggest thing that stands out is a shift from conservative to center left in Billings Heights. The Heights has consistently been a Trump type conservative stronghold. The voting pattern shows a shift when you look at the results of a three-way race.
We are making some assumptions based on candidates’ public statements. To estimate how the Ward 2 race in Billings might have played out under a ranked choice voting (RCV) system, we need to estimate how votes would be redistributed based on voter preferences. Here’s a breakdown of how the votes are counted.
🗳️ Ward 2 – First-Choice Vote Totals (Results for Election Night Final Count)
| Candidate | Votes | % of Total |
|---|---|---|
| Denis Pitman | 2,440 | 43.0% |
| Kassi Strong | 2,341 | 41.2% |
| Earnest Hammer | 897 | 15.8% |
| Total Votes | 5,678 | 100% |
No candidate received a majority (>50%), so under RCV, the candidate with the fewest votes—Earnest Hammer—would be eliminated, and his voters’ second-choice preferences would be redistributed.
🔄 Simulated Ranked Choice Redistribution
Let’s estimate how Hammer’s 897 votes might split based on likely voter alignment:
- 60% to Kassi Strong → ~538 votes
- 30% to Denis Pitman → ~269 votes
- 10% exhausted or no second choice → ~90 votes
Final Round Totals (After Redistribution)
| Candidate | Votes | % of Final Total |
|---|---|---|
| Kassi Strong | 2,341 + 538 = 2,879 | ~52.7% |
| Denis Pitman | 2,440 + 269 = 2,709 | ~49.6% |
| Exhausted Ballots | ~90 | — |
Estimated Outcome: Kassi Strong wins narrowly under RCV.
Given Pittman’s high name recognition, past conservative performance in the Ward should have had him around 60% of the vote in a two-way race. In the RCV simulation at 60%/30%/10% split has Strong with a decisive win in what is normally a conservative strong hold.
This is a campaign that should be analyzed to understand why the shift happened.
📉 Turnout and Engagement: A Strategic Opportunity
- Overall turnout: 36.56% citywide
- Ballot rejection rate: ~3%, largely due to new ID requirements (birth year on envelope)
These numbers reveal engagement gaps—especially among younger voters, renters, and first-time participants. Coalition organizers should treat this as a strategic opportunity to expand civic education and ballot access.
🧭 What This Means for Billings
This election wasn’t about sweeping ideological change. It was about nuance. Voters are signaling that they want leaders who:
- Solve problems with practical solutions
- Build coalitions across divides
- Prioritize local impact over national rhetoric
And they’re willing to elect progressives, conservatives, and centrists—if the message is clear and the values are grounded in community.
📌 Coalition Takeaways
- Messaging matters: Candidates who emphasized housing, SNAP access, and infrastructure won across partisan lines.
- Turnout gaps are strategic opportunities: Addressing ballot rejection and voter education can shift future outcomes.
- Collaboration is the new currency: Voters are rewarding bridge-builders, not bomb-throwers.
- Progressive wins are possible: The northern half of Ward 3 is the geographics center of progressive neighborhoods in Billings. This support looks solid.
- Conservative incumbency remains strong: Ward 2 and Ward 5 show that name recognition and party backing still carry weight.
- Centrist momentum is real: The mayoral race, Ward 1, and Ward 4 reflect a growing appetite for pragmatic, coalition-minded leadership.
Summary
The past council’s tone has been mean spirited. Ideologically driven to say “No!” And to point fingers at staff for policy failings. There has been significant turn over amongst senior staff for the city as a direct result of the finger pointing and meanness.
The 2026 incoming council should displays a significant shift to the center right of Montana politics. There are significant signs of movement from conservative, no compromise, mean spirited ideology towards a more coalition approach, policy decisions based on results, and a negotiated approach to policy decisions.
The future for Billings made a small turn to the sunshine as a result of the 2025 municipal election.
Sources: Montana Free Press – 2025 Montana Election Results